New and restored production capacity increased and the supply gap of overseas aluminium decreased

According to the latest data released by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), the global primary aluminium production from January to April 2019 was about 20.909 million tons, while China's output was 1.183 million tons, accounting for 57% of the global total production. In 2018, the global output of primary aluminium is about 64.336 million tons, an increase of 1.4% over the same period of last year. China's output is 36.485 million tons, accounting for 56.7%. China is still the main producer of primary aluminium, but the output/output of other countries and regions is also changing.

As far as raw aluminium production is concerned, in recent years, the Gulf Arab and Asian regions, except China, have witnessed the greatest increase in output, while South America and North America have witnessed the greatest reduction in output, while other regions have witnessed different increases and decreases. There are various factors affecting the output change of various countries and enterprises, which are mainly divided into internal and external reasons. The internal reasons are the problems of normal production and operation of aluminium enterprises themselves, including strikes and shutdowns caused by labor negotiations, maintenance and shutdown caused by safety accidents, internal disputes caused by property rights replacement, etc. The external reasons are geopolitical turbulence, macroeconomic weakness, environmental pollution and so on. However, with the technological progress, equipment renewal, capacity transfer and government support and other measures, the total output of overseas primary aluminium has maintained a growth trend.

According to the information released by the government and enterprises, except for China, there are still many new, restored and withdrawn production capacity in other areas in 2019. Including 540,000 tons of Bahrain Aluminum Line 6 capacity, expected to be fully operational in the third quarter; Vedanta Resources Jharsuguda Smelter Line 2 continues to increase production, 300,000 tons from the maximum design capacity; Alcoa's Warrick Smelter in the United States has resumed production capacity of 161,000 tons; Alcoa's remaining 124,000 tons of capacity in Spain's two smelters will be in the first half of this year. Production cuts have been completed; about 170,000 tons of Delf Zijl smelter capacity in the Netherlands is expected to be restarted by the end of this year; the annual capacity of Rio Tinto in New Zealand has increased by 31,000 tons; the capacity of Heidelou Brazilian smelter has been restored, and so on. Without considering emergencies, it is expected that the overseas operating capacity will increase by more than 1 million tons in 2019, and the supply gap in the global primary aluminium market will be further reduced.